KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Kamala (99%)
Resolved: Sep 13, 2026, 3:48 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Probability Timeline
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Rigged Election / Stolen Election99%
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Third Term3%
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Bibi / NetanyahuLost
UkraineLost
KamalaWon
Golf / Golfer / GolfingLost
Rigged Election / Stolen ElectionLost
Barack Hussein ObamaLost
FraudLost
Who are you with / Where are you fromLost
MelaniaLost
Sleepy JoeLost
Stupid QuestionLost
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Kamala, or a plural or possessive form of Kamala, is stated by Donald Trump after September 7, 2026 at 8:00pm ET and before Sep 14, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationPBSthe President of the United StatesCBSNBCBloombergAxiosCNNReutersThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPoliticoThe New York Times
- Payout criteria The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
- The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.
- Doesn't count for payout Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count.
- Grammatical/tense inflections.
