KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataThis market resolved: Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime (99%)
Resolved: Sep 11, 2026, 2:36 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Working Class / Middle Class57%
Israel / Israeli21%
Democrat98%
Free Speech / Freedom of Speech26%
Socialist / Socialism90%
Tariff57%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline1%
Radical Left9%
ID / Identification34%
American Dream62%
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime81%
AI / Artificial Intelligence22%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability64%
China / Chinese55%
Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeWon
FraudLost
Working Class / Middle ClassLost
BidenLost
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
American DreamLost
ManufacturingLost
2028 / CampaignLost
Illegal AlienLost
ElectionLost
DemocratLost
ID / IdentificationLost
TariffLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Free Speech / Freedom of SpeechLost
Israel / IsraeliLost
Radical LeftLost
America FirstLost
China / ChineseLost
Made in America / American MadeLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention
Manifold MarketsWhat party will win the special election to fill JD Vance's Senate seat?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio (to fill JD Vance's seat)?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiHow many tie-breaking Senate votes will JD Vance cast in 2026?
PredictItRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.