KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Ukraine (3+ times) (99%)
Resolved: Sep 22, 2026, 4:26 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Ukraine (3+ times)
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
36%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 22, 2026, 4:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Event does not qualify2%
Nuclear95%
AI / Artificial Intelligence65%
Gaza / Palestine72%
Communist / Communism70%
Ceasefire37%
Immigrant / Immigration85%
Stock Market75%
MAGA / Make America Great Again8%
Ukraine (3+ times)35%
Canada / Canadian49%
Board of Peace66%
Venezuela89%
Data Center38%
First Term88%
Trump80%
Fentanyl23%
Biden78%
Hottest78%
Israel / Israeli87%
Hormuz69%
Peace in the Middle East7%
Saudi69%
Windmill32%
America First30%
China / Chinese51%
Democrat1%
Terrorist / TerrorismLost
VenezuelaLost
Communist / CommunismLost
NuclearLost
CeasefireLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Ukraine (3+ times)Won
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
Gaza / PalestineLost
HottestLost
Iran / IranianLost
Israel / IsraeliLost
Immigrant / ImmigrationLost
First TermLost
HormuzLost
TrumpLost
Russia / RussianLost
Board of PeaceLost
Stock MarketLost
China / ChineseLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will Trump say in October?
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Manifold MarketsWill Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump say the name "Henry Novak" on video in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext Secretary-General of the United Nations
PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- Important information: To be clear, this event will resolve based on Donald Trump’s official address during the General Debate of the 81st United Nations General Assembly, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026.
- Remarks at press conferences, interviews, side events, bilateral meetings, or separate statements will not count.
- Markets may close and resolve after the address concludes and the outcomes are verified.
- How this is resolved Video of the the United Nations General Assembly using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the the United Nations General Assembly will be used.