KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Zohran / Mamdani (99%)
Resolved: Sep 22, 2026, 1:43 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 22, 2026, 1:25 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Cognitive47%
Newscum28%
Greenland99%
Zohran / Mamdani79%
Ceasefire62%
Peptide5%
Zohran / MamdaniWon
AutismLost
PelosiLost
Barack Hussein ObamaLost
Predict / PredictionLost
GreenlandLost
Fat shot / OzempicLost
GeniusLost
FilibusterLost
Gulf of AmericaLost
American DreamLost
UFCLost
Third TermLost
Who are you with / Where are you fromLost
Space ForceLost
Golden AgeLost
KamalaLost
Deal / Settle / SettledLost
MoonLost
CeasefireLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will Trump say in October?
PolymarketWill Trump say that you will die if you vote Democrat? (before 2029)
Manifold MarketsWill Trump say he “forgives” the UK Labour Party, Keir Starmer or in any reference to them?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump say the name "Henry Novak" on video in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Greenland, or a plural or possessive form of Greenland, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationPBSthe President of the United StatesCBSNBCBloombergAxiosCNNReutersThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPoliticoThe New York Times
- Payout criteria The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
- The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.
- Doesn't count for payout Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count.
- Grammatical/tense inflections.