KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 1 82.7%Leader of 3 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.5 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Dec 9, 25, 3:00 PM UTCJan 8, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Mike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
KalshiWho will serve as a speaker of the House of Representatives before the end of the 122nd Congress?
Manifold MarketsMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by which date?
PolymarketMike Johnson out as Speaker by which date?
PolymarketWill Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?
Manifold MarketsSpeaker of the House after the midterms?
PolymarketRules
If the number of people who have served as Speaker of the House during 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:United States Congress
- "Served in the role" means that an individual has formally held the position in an official capacity, whether by appointment, election, succession, or acting designation, and performed the duties of that role for any length of time during the time period.
- If an individual serves multiple non-consecutive terms in the role, they will count once for each term (allowing an individual to be counted multiple times).
- If an individual holds the role temporarily in an "acting" or "interim" capacity for any amount of time, or is formally designated as such, they count as serving in the role.
- Dual officeholders count once per person even if holding multiple titles simultaneously.
- If an individual is appointed but never sworn in, or withdraws before assuming office, they do not count as serving.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-2.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+1.5pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio16%
- Tucker Carlson4%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $705.3M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.8%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $219.3M
- 24h Vol
- $703.8K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.6pt92%
- Yes+2.6pt8%
- Total Vol
- $21.5M
- 24h Vol
- $691.1K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+4.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $31.7M
- 24h Vol
- $676.3K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.5pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.6pt16%
+48 more outcomes
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- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Nebraska Senate winner?
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- Brazil Presidential Election
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- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Exactly 1 at 83% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026? resolve?
- How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2027.
- How is How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the number of people who have served as Speaker of the House during 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.