Who will serve as a speaker of the House of Representatives before the end of the 122nd Congress?
Politics6y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Mike Johnson 100%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 13, 24, 9:18 PM UTCJan 3, 33, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?
KalshiWill any member of "The Squad" become Speaker of the House before 2033?
Manifold MarketsMike Johnson out as Speaker of the House?
KalshiMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by which date?
PolymarketMike Johnson out as Speaker by which date?
PolymarketWill Mike Johnson be removed as Speaker before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
The Speaker of the House is elected by the House of Representatives and serves as the chamber's presiding officer and leader of the majority party.
- The 122nd Congress will begin in January 2031 and end in January 2033.
- the named outcome is the current Speaker, having been elected on October 25, 2023, following the named outcome's removal on October 3, 2023.
- Prior to McCarthy, the named outcome served as Speaker during the 117th Congress.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES for any listed individual who serves as Speaker of the House at any point between 1/3/2025 and the end of the 122nd Congress in January 2033.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will serve as a speaker of the House of Representatives before the end of the 122nd Congress??
- Manifold Markets prices Mike Johnson at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will serve as a speaker of the House of Representatives before the end of the 122nd Congress? resolve?
- Who will serve as a speaker of the House of Representatives before the end of the 122nd Congress? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2033.
- How is Who will serve as a speaker of the House of Representatives before the end of the 122nd Congress? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Speaker of the House is elected by the House of Representatives and serves as the chamber's presiding officer and leader of the majority party.