How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
2.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 18 47%-2.0ptMarket line of 13 lines
At least 18 47%-2.0ptMarket quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$164
Open interest
$28K
High open interestSpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York TimesThe Associated PressDecision Desk HQCNNFox NewsNBC NewsCBS NewsABC News
- A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party), any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Democratic designation who caucuses with Democrats is not counted, and one elected as a Democratic candidate who later leaves remains counted. All 35 U.S. Senate contests on the November 3, 2026 ballot count, including the Florida and Ohio special elections. No seat counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from Senate composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called. Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this clause, a source declares a winning candidate, party, or option when it makes either (i) a formal projection of victory by its centralized decision desk, or (ii) an unambiguous statement in a news article that the candidate/party/option has won. For the network sources (Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC), a declaration from a local affiliate may represent the parent network; however, a declaration from the national desk shall always supersede any affiliate’s call. In all instances, a parent network and all of its affiliates shall collectively constitute a single source for the purpose of this clause.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 10
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 10 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 11
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 11 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 12
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 12 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 14
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 14 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 13
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 13 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 15
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 15 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 16
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 16 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 17
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 17 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 18
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 18 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 19
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 19 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 20
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 20 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 21
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 21 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 22
- If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 22 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
