KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Steven Horsford 93.3%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Steven Horsford 93.3%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$6.8K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
94.1% / 97.0%
Spread
2.9 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 1, 25, 9:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 14s (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the House member sworn in for NV-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Rules for each outcome
- Steven Horsford
- If the House member sworn in for NV-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cody Whipple
- If the House member sworn in for NV-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Steven Horsford (D) is 97%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Steven Horsford (D) 97% · 3 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Gemini — Nevada-04 House Winner · Steven Horsford 95%
- Also available on Polymarket — NV-04 House Election Winner · Steven Horsford (D) 97%