GeminiKYC requiredVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic Party 57.8%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$100
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
59.0% / 60.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Dec 23, 25, 4:08 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
- This contract resolves based on whether the the named outcome controls the U.S. Senate following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
- Control is defined as holding the most seats in the Senate based on final, official results.
- A majority consists of at least 51 seats.
- If two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government, including consideration of the Vice President’s tie-breaking role.
- Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party.
Prediction Source Comparison
4 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Democratic Party is 60%. Quotes span about 2 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference Democratic Party 60% · 4 venues · 2 pt venue spread
- Also available on Limitless — Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · Democratic Party 61%
- Also available on Kalshi — Which party will win the U.S. Senate? · Democratic Party 58%
- Also available on Polymarket — Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · Democratic Party 61%
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+41.0pt56%
- Nicolás Maduro-39.9pt43%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.9M
- 24h Vol
- $635.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will win the U.S. Senate??
- Gemini prices Democratic Party at 58% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Which party will win the U.S. Senate? resolve?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is Which party will win the U.S. Senate? settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Which party will win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
- Where else is Which party will win the U.S. Senate? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless, Kalshi, Polymarket.