Which of Brazil's military commanders will remain in office through the end of 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
Army Commander (General Tomás Paiva) 92%Leader of 3 outcomes
Army Commander (General Tomás Paiva) 92%Market quality
25 / 100
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PolymarketRules
This event predicts whether Brazil's military commanders will remain in office through December 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC.
- Remaining in office means that the listed individual continues to officially hold the position of Commander of the respective armed force (Army, Airforce or Marine), regardless of temporary absences due to health or other reasons, provided no formal dismissal or replacement is announced.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is official announcements or publications by the Brazilian federal government or the Ministry of Defense confirming the appointment status of the Commander of the Air Force, the Army or the Marine.
- If the listed individual or an official government spokesperson publicly announces their departure, dismissal, or replacement as Commander before the end of 2026, these markets will resolve according to that announcement without waiting for the effective date of departure.
- These markets will be resolved based on the substantive outcome—whether he officially retains the post—and not minor technicalities of timing or ceremony.
- If no fair determination is possible, Futuur may cancel the markets with a public explanation.