Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 93.1%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 8, 23, 7:32 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
António Guterres out by December 31?
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Manifold MarketsRules
António Guterres is the SecGen of the UN.
- His 2nd term began on 1st of Jan 2022 and will end in 2027.
- This will resolve as no if he does not complete his 2nd term for any reason - resignation, death, etc.