- Manifold Android app notifications fixed in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Manifold fix notifications in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will at least 1 non-passenger get hantavirus from the MV Hondius outbreak?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will OpenAI release a cross-platform web browser by the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will a Chinese AI model rank in the top 10 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on August 1?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- My next Dice will Be
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will gold have a red and green bar today?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Nivida Be bankrupt when I finish this?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will I stay in masters this season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will I get 1 Coin on Pixels Today?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Choose1
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will 1+1 = 2 Inside a window?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will I Jump in the Next 1 Day?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- CostOOption2
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Even Steven, My next coin Flips is...
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Yes Or No?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- HEWWO?2You
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Yes or NoX22
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) China spot price exceed 1500 USD/t on July 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceed 25 USD/kg on July 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceed 17 USD/kg on July 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will natural flake graphite concentrate (FOB China, +80 mesh) spot price exceed 650 USD/t on July 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 200 USD/kg on July 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) China spot price exceed 4000 USD/t on July 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 100 USD/kg on July 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will OpenAI ship a hardware device in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- GTA 6 released before August 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Seb Krier's Antichrist Meme tweet still be up on August 1st?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will Sirui Sheng get a Gold Medal on IOL 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- will there be a moomin prediction market by the end of july?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 2 août 2026
- Will my sister be at sleepaway camp on August 1?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 2 août 2026
- What are the Top 3 Gas Stations
Manifold Markets · Winner: Buc-ee's · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Anduril IPO Before July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will USTC be above $ 0.01 in August 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Ford Q2, 2026 Gross Profit exceed Tesla's
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- 5 currently elected top level Republican politicians will make race and IQ talking points before July 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will an Atlantic hurricane (Category 1+) form before August 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close above $65,000 on July 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will SPY's July 2026 closing price be higher than its July 2026 opening price?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I have 7 weigh-ins at or below 200 lbs by July 31?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I make a small office shed before August 1st?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will $BTC cross $70000 before the end of July?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- 𓆩✧𓆪 Will I be promoted to PLATINUM this month? 𓆩✧𓆪
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will commercial autonomous cars without human safety operators be illegal in Boston as of July 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will a cyclist join a team immediately before the 2026 Tour de France Femmes and start the race?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will a rider from Team SD Worx - Protime win Stage 1 of the 2026 Tour de France Femmes?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Where will I rank in my league at the end of this season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Top 1-5 · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I be able to change my gmail in the way Pitchai explained, in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I be able to change my gmail in the way Pitchai explained, in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Who will win Masters Season 39?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Jesse · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I stay in Masters this season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will 2+ bots beat master league in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will JasonMendoza2008 get promoted to masters this season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Jesse OR Travis wins Masters Season 39
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Jesse OR Mochi wins Masters Season 39
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Jack OR Mochi wins Masters Season 39
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Jack OR Jesse wins Masters Season 39
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will France beat Spain in 90 minutes? (WC 2026 semifinal, 14 Jul)
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Rob Miles say the word "Fable" in a Rational Animations video published in July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Pedro Vs Tavares
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- @ 5:30 am PDT today my Chatterbox score is 111. Will it reach 333 by August 1, 2026 (8/1/26)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Manchester City defeat Inter Milan in their pre-season friendly on August 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- When will I have an ice cold beer today?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Won’t have an ice cold beer today · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Labour get <50% of the 1st preference vote in the 2026 Manchester mayoral by-election in any borough?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I run further than @draaglom in July?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will the San Diego County Fair 2026 official website list total attendance ≥ 888,888?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Who will be ESPY's 2026 'Best Male Athlete'?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Jalen Brunson · Resolved 1 août 2026
- How many successful SpaceX launches in July 2026 UTC
Manifold Markets · Winner: 13 · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Israel attack Iran in July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Silver price in July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Under minimum June price: $56.13 · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I destroy my keyboard?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- I will build a split keyboard by EOY
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Gold price in July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Under median of June daily minimum: $4254 · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Maximum gold price in July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: ChatGPT: $ 4,273 · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Silver price *stays* under $69 in July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Silver price above $90 in July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I have a meaningful interaction over BitChat before August 1st 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- New fish speaces in july
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I walk 25 minutes or more 8 times by August 1, 2026? (I walked 25 mins this morning for the first time in a while.)
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will the DJIA go below 50,000 by August 1 (8/1/26)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will there be at least two MLB games in which a single player hits 3 HR between July 17 and July 31, 2026 (7/31/26)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Disney’s live-action Moana outgross Universal's Minions & Monsters domestically by July 30?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- I'm very likely to be #1 in my silver group. In the JULY season, will I be top 5 (next season)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I (wrusb) reach Expert on Codeforces before the start of August 1st 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I be an Expert on CF before August? (sorry the previous one was wrong)
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Infantino win the upcoming vote for selling the FIFA World Cup?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Anticipated release of Epstein files still a thing in second half of 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will I reach 15 followers before august?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- ¿Qué lista ganará las elecciones de la Federación Universitaria de San Marcos (FUSM) 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Lista 2 - Cambiemos San Marcos · Resolved 1 août 2026
- ¿Se anularán o suspenderán definitivamente las elecciones de la FUSM 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will the Rays lead the AL East by over 3.0 games AND the Yankees trade for an All-Star by July 31?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Trump set foot in Greenland by the end of July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- 3rd largest company end of July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Alphabet (Google) · Resolved 1 août 2026
- 2nd largest company end of July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Apple · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Largest company end of July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: NVIDIA · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will there be at least one more peace talk by the US and Iran before August 1?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will the SotA open-source AI model in July 2026 use Test-Time Training?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before August 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will silver close above $60 at the end of July, 2026 based on SI=F ticker on Yahoo Finance ($60.82 at market creation)
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will the government of a European country propose to withdraw from NATO before August 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Péter Szijjártó, Hungary's current minister of foreign affairs, be indicted before August 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before August 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will a meeting between former President Obama and Pope Leo XIV be announced before August 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Will Anthropic's lawsuit against the Pentagon be settled out of court before August 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Is GPT-4.5 the base model for o3?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 1 août 2026
- Is my friend’s sister-in-law having a boy or a girl?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will Claude Fable 5 be accessible in a subscription on July 31 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- If this person is the Labour candidate for the 2026 Mayor of Greater Manchester election, will they win?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Bev Craig · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- What party will the next Mayor of Greater Manchester be from after the 2026 by-election?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Labour · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Who will be the Mayor of Greater Manchester after the next Greater Manchester mayoral election?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Bev Craig · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will the New York Yankees defeat the Chicago Cubs on Friday, July 31, 2026? (7/31/26)
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will I avoid media and distracting apps before 1 p.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will I complete my next job interview?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will there be in a runoff in the 2026 Greater Manchestor mayoral by-election?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Musk's role at DOGE ruled unconstitutional
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will FTX pay more in taxes to the IRS than it returns to creditors?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will FTX creditors get back more than 100%?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- BTC above or below $63k at 18:00 UTC on 31 July?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Above · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Where will I rent my next apartment?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Bronx · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will Angie Velasco win in La Velada against Alondrissa?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- What will be the most streamed album on Spotify this week?
Manifold Markets · Winner: 'You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love' (Olivia Rodrigo) · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- What will be the most streamed song on Spotify this week?
Manifold Markets · Winner: 'Dai Dai' (Shakira, Burna Boy) · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Who will be the most streamed artist on Spotify this week?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Bad Bunny · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Who will Sadie Sink Play in Spider Man Brand New Day
Manifold Markets · Winner: Jean Gray · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will "DeepSeek" surpass "ChatGPT" in Google Trends worldwide search interest for 7 consecutive days before June 30, 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- US achieves nuclear reactor buildout goals by July 4, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will Edward Snowden be pardoned by 2025?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will Labor lead One Nation in the polls at the end of July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- This is my 47th day. I have 16 referrals to Manifold Markets. Will I have 20 by August 4, 2026 (8/4/26)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will Hamas “disarm and relinquish power” in Gaza?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day in July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will I delete my Manifold account by October? (Again)
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win exactly 2 games against the Seattle Mariners in their July 28–30, 2026 series?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- MLB: Will the San Diego Padres defeat the San Francisco Giants by 2 or more runs on July 30, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- What day will iran attack Israel
Manifold Markets · Winner: Iran will not attack in the month of July · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Free lottery!
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will there be a red alert somewhere in Israel on July 30th?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Who will win the 3x3 Men's Basketball event at the 2026 Commonwealth Games?
Manifold Markets · Winner: England · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Bitcoin price above $63,700 on Thursday, July 30 at market close (UTC)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 31 juil. 2026
- Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- What the total amount of mana will manifolders managram me?
Manifold Markets · Winner: 51-100 mana · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Kash Patel remains FBI Director on June 30, 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- What month will the new Phoebe Bridgers album be released?
Manifold Markets · Winner: August · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Phoebe Bridgers releases new album by 2027
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Facebook will ship a clearly traditional Avatar system on PC by mid 2026, no more forced ambiguous self-presentatation
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- When will Yao Ye beat me in Codeforces rating?
Manifold Markets · Winner: After August 2026 · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Will more than 8 bots trade on this market in the next week
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Who will win the Women's SVNS Grand Finals?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Australia · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Will 10K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Lewandowski to score in first match playing for Chicago Fire?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Vozinha to Inter Miami?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Will Zvi agree that Kimi K3 is better than Opus 4.8 for at least some (non-trivial) use-cases?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Next CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader
Manifold Markets · Winner: Thorsten Frei · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Outcome of the Bank of England MPC rate decision on Thursday 30th July 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Rate unchanged · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Will Nico Williams join FC Barcelona during the 2025/2026 season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Will the LA Dodgers defeat the Seattle Mariners on July 29?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Bird flu H5N1 outbreak in Australia in 2025 or 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Who will replace Graham Platner if he drops out?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Troy Jackson · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- MLS All-Star Game Result
Manifold Markets · Winner: MLS All-Stars · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Will I like "The Odyssey"?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 30 juil. 2026
- Top score on Humanity's Last Exam > 50% by 2029?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Will Chris Froome win another UCI race before he retires?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Does the Fed rate change in July?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Will I ever fall sleep before midnight during PROMYS?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Will the Fed hike rates at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Federal Reserve (Fed) FOMC decision in July 2026? [2k added subsidy]
Manifold Markets · Winner: No change · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Will a South American country be the next world cup champion in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Exit valuation of CodeStory (YC S23)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Less than $10M or bankrupt · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Daily Coinflip
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Will Anthony Fauci "plead the fifth" while Trump is president?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved 29 juil. 2026
- Who will be the successor of Jens Spahn as Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Thorsten Frei · Resolved 29 juil. 2026