SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
One-OffIAChinaTechGéopolitique3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.3%
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète9 oct. 25, 23:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)
Manifold MarketsOpen Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI be #1 on Artificial Analysis Index by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
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- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis) ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 77% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis) sera-t-il résolu ?
- SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis) doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).