Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
baseCorporate ActionsOne-OffUS PoliticsChinaTechIAGéopolitique3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNeither by close date 91.3%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
37
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète11 janv. 26, 06:48 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0.3%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
PolymarketIran invades Kuwait by which date?
PolymarketUS invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketWill Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
KalshiWill the USA send a “Hospital Boat” to Greenland before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market asks: Which happens first – a Chinese full-scale military invasion of Taiwan (main island or significant territory seizure) OR a U.S. military invasion/occupation of any part of Greenland OR formal U.S. acquisition/control transfer (purchase, annexation, etc.)?
- - "Invade" for Taiwan: PLA launches amphibious/air assault to seize/control territory (blockades/gray-zone ops don't count unless they escalate to boots-on-ground occupation).
- - "Invade/acquire" for Greenland: U.S. forces occupy territory OR binding agreement transfers sovereignty/control of any part (per related markets like "US acquires part of Greenland").
- - "First" = earlier confirmed start date of qualifying action (via official statements, major news consensus like Reuters/AP/BBC, or gov announcements).
- - If neither qualifies by close date → resolves to "Neither".
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Greenland basing rights clarification: Gaining control over only a U.S. military base, expanding basing rights, or renewing existing base access does not count as qualifying for the Greenland side.
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Neither by close date à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market asks: Which happens first – a Chinese full-scale military invasion of Taiwan (main island or significant territory seizure) OR a U.S. military invasion/occupation of any part of Greenland OR formal U.S. acquisition/control transfer (purchase, annexation, etc.)?