Prévision communautaire actuelle
OpenAI 75.5%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 26, 19:16 UTC31 déc. 00, 20:12 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Core Resolution Criteria
- Primary Attribution Rule
- The market resolves to the organization that developed the AI system that is most causally responsible for the extinction event.
- Successor / Self-Improvement Clause
- If the decisive system is:
- autonomously derived,
