Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 67.8%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète16 mars 25, 01:36 UTC2 janv. 36, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a moon base by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a permanently inhabited Moon base by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any Antarctic Treaty signatory announce or start building a dual-use research station by end of 2027?
FutuurWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRègles
NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable lunar presence.
- The program includes plans for the Lunar Gateway, a space station in lunar orbit expected to be operational by the mid-2020s, which would serve as a staging point for lunar surface missions.
- Currently, NASA has not announced specific plans or timelines for constructing a permanent moon base before 2036.
- The agency's focus is on initial crewed landings and establishing sustainable operations on the lunar surface.
- In contrast, China and Russia have announced plans for their International Lunar Research Station, with construction scheduled to begin around 2026 and operations expected by 2036.
- Resolution Criteria
Marchés ouverts
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 202754.3%
- June 30, 202736.2%
- December 31, 20268.6%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 16,2 k €
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B-0.5pt50%
- $2B43%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 644,8 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 58,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- United States11.7%
- France5.5%
- Canada4.5%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,6 k €
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- 2.00% to 2.75%21.8%
- 3.00% to 3.75%21.8%
- 4.00% to 4.75%16.5%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 203,9 €
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- Mauritius46.9%
- United Kingdom25.7%
- United States10%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
- Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
- Will there be a moon base by 2030?
- How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027
- Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 68% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2036.
- Comment Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : NASA's Artemis program aims to return humans to the Moon and establish a sustainable lunar presence.