Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
111 - 120 29.4%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète19 sept. 23, 03:22 UTC1 janv. 31, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketWill NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a moon base by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
Manifold MarketsRègles
A nice number is a natural number such that its square and cube combined contain all digits exactly once, without needing to use any leading zeros.
- It is already known that 69 is the only nice number in base ten, and so far, no nice number has been found in any other base either.
- Currently, the bases up to 48 have been completely searched for nice numbers, with none found, aside from 69 in base 10.
- You can see https://nicenumbers.net/ for the current status of the serach, as well as @Conflux's last post about it: https://beautifulthorns.wixsite.com/home/post/progress-update-on-the-search-for-nice-numbers
- As you can see, it is estimated that there should be about one nice number by the time we get to base 118, but this is only an estimate.
- This market resolves once the next nice number is found, provided that all bases smaller than the one it is nice in have been exhaustively checked (or otherwise proven not to have nice numbers).
Marchés ouverts
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027-1.0pt53.9%
- June 30, 202736.5%
- December 31, 20268.7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8 k €
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B50%
- $2B43%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 644,7 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 58,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Volume total
- 80,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 97,2 €
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%
+3 résultats de plus
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What is the base of the next nice number? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 111 - 120 à 29% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What is the base of the next nice number? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What is the base of the next nice number? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment What is the base of the next nice number? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A nice number is a natural number such that its square and cube combined contain all digits exactly once, without needing to use any leading zeros.