Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2100 28.5%En tête parmi 12 options
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète27 nov. 23, 12:11 UTC1 janv. 01, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 80% for 2028?
Manifold MarketsUSD share of global FX reserves in Q2 2026
KalshiWill TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS share of global GDP in 2026
KalshiWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolved to the % of energy from nuclear power for each year, including fusion, according to our world in data:
- https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption
- [image](I will calculate the % base on the numbers in this graph)
- Note that electricity was only about 20% of global energy use in 2022 (https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/share-electricity-final-consumption.html)
- If our world in data does not refresh their data I will propose and select another resolution source.
- I will not trade in the market.
Marchés ouverts
base
POLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027-1.0pt53.9%
- June 30, 202736.5%
- December 31, 20268.7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8 k €
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M59%
- $1B50%
- $2B43%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 644,7 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 58,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 k €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Volume total
- 80,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 97,2 €
- Volume 24h
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?79.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?74.6%
- If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?63.9%
+3 résultats de plus
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
- Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What share of global energy will come from nuclear power? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2100 à 29% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What share of global energy will come from nuclear power? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2101.
- Comment What share of global energy will come from nuclear power? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolved to the % of energy from nuclear power for each year, including fusion, according to our world in data: