base

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

0.1 pt (24h)1a

December 31, 2027

-4.0pt52.7%

June 30, 2027

+5.5pt38.4%

December 31, 2026

+3 résultats de plus

Haute qualité (78)Spread serréLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée

Volume total8 M $US

Volume 24h14,4 k $US

POLYMARKET

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

0.5 pt (24h)1a

$500M

59%

$1B

-0.5pt45%

$2B

43%

+7 résultats de plus

Qualité moyenne (68)Spread serréLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée

Volume total750,3 k $US

Volume 24h730,8 $US

POLYMARKET

Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH more than 267.8431 USDC on Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTC

Non

96.8%

Oui

3.2%

Cryptos liées

BTC

Prévision communautaire5 prévisionnistesType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Non

94.4%

Oui

5.6%

Prévision communautaire55 prévisionnistesType: binary

il y a 6 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

4mois

5–7 wins

40.2%

8-9 wins

30.2%

10-11 wins

13.2%

+2 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire8 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 9 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

If I accept the Penguin job, at what will I rate my overall life satisfaction in 2 years, on a scale of 0-100?

79.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 6 months?

74.6%

If I accept the Penguin job, will I believe it to have been the correct decision in 4 years?

63.9%

+3 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire74 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 9 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Before 2035

44.2%

2035 - 2045

24.1%

2045 - 2060

20.8%

+3 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire58 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 9 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What is the base of the next nice number?

111 - 120

29.4%

121 - 125

22.3%

101 - 110

14.1%

+6 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire11 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 10 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

3mois

United States

11.7%

France

5.5%

Canada

4.5%

+4 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire19 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 12 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

2.00% to 2.75%

21.8%

3.00% to 3.75%

21.8%

4.00% to 4.75%

16.5%

+4 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire4 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 14 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

Mauritius

46.9%

United Kingdom

25.7%

United States

10%

+5 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire9 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 17 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

2100

28.5%

2075

21.7%

2050

14%

+9 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire32 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 17 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

Oui

67.8%

Non

32.2%

Prévision communautaire15 prévisionnistesType: binary

il y a 13 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

OpenAI

75.5%

Anthropic

55%

Google (DeepMind)

35%

+10 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire11 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 6 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

3mois

Non

53%

Oui

47%

Prévision communautaire15 prévisionnistesType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

2027

98.2%

2028

98%

2029

97.6%

+1 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire11 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 15 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

3mois

Non

98.1%

Oui

1.9%

Prévision communautaire49 prévisionnistesType: binary

il y a 7 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

3mois

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

97%

<10sqkm of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY

92.7%

Resolves 50% if the US owns <10sqkm of Greenland by EOY, otherwise, resolves to 5x the number of traders on this option.

49%

+18 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire145 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

Non

90%

Oui

10%

Prévision communautaire46 prévisionnistesType: binary

il y a 2 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

3mois

101-150

39.3%

151-200

31.5%

201-250

8.4%

+7 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire49 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 5 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

3mois

4.00%

41%

3.75%

38.6%

4.25%

6.7%

+7 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire5 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 2 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

3mois

Neither by close date

91.3%

China invades Taiwan first

6.7%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first

1.7%

+1 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire37 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 3 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Pete Buttigieg

59.3%

Josh Shapiro

59.1%

Raphael Warnock

58.1%

+21 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire32 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 11 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Anthropic

40.3%

OpenAI

27.8%

Google

13.8%

+4 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire17 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 6 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Where will I live in October 2026?

20j

Menlo Park, CA

27.8%

Stanford, CA

13.2%

Berkeley, CA

13.1%

+5 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire13 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 17 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

4.00%

22.2%

3.75%

15.8%

4.25%

12.6%

+8 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire2 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

3mois

70+

100%

80+

100%

90+

100%

+7 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire26 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 3 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

5.4

100%

5.5

100%

5.6

100%

+6 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire10 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 14 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

7.5 pt (24h)3mois

$12,000-$13,999

+7.5pt32.2%

$14,000-$15,999

+4.1pt18.1%

$10,000-$11,999

+3.7pt16.9%

+3 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire10 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 4 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

3mois

($71, $91]

97.5%

[$61, $71]

1.1%

More than $91

+1 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire78 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 1 heure

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

Elizabeth Warren

85%

John Fetterman

15%

Prévision communautaire8 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 3 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")

Any American receives it by end 2025

100%

Any American receives it by end 2026

100%

Limit set at or below 99th percentile wealth or income

73.9%

+15 résultats de plus

Prévision communautaire102 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice

il y a 5 heures

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs Crypto Liés

Will Base launch a token by ___ ?

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH more than 267.8431 USDC on Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTC

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?

Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

What is the base of the next nice number?

What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?

Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?

If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 1500 by the end of 2026? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

How will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]

Will there be a moon base by 2030?

How many people will attend Slutcon 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

Where will I live in October 2026?

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2028?

How many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Price of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026

How much will GTA 6 cost? (USA, PlayStation 5, digital)

If elected, will Graham Platner vote more like John Fetterman or Elizabeth Warren?

What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")