Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleMenlo Park, CA 27.8%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète24 avr. 26, 18:30 UTC1 oct. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
0.5%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
Manifold MarketsHow will the U.S. take Greenland? [Ind MC]
Manifold MarketsWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
PolymarketBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.
- The market resolves equally among tied cities.
- For context, this definition would have resolved "the named outcome" (where my parents live) for the vast majority of my childhood, and "the named outcome" for most of my college months.
- I strongly expect it to resolve "the named outcome" for July and August 2026, where I have plans to sublet for my MIRI job.
- This definition does not always align with where I actually live.
- It would have resolved "Portland, OR" during July 2018 when I was at sleepaway camp, probably "St. Louis, MO" in July 2025 (Epsilon Camp counselor), and I think "Ardsley, NY" during August 2025 (when I slept in like 9 different cities).
Marchés ouverts
basePOLYMARKETWill Base launch a token by ___ ?
- December 31, 2027+5.5pt56.8%
- June 30, 202734.2%
- December 31, 20268.1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 79,5 k €
POLYMARKETBase FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $500M-0.5pt59%
- $1B-4.0pt46%
- $2B43%
+7 résultats de plus
MANIFOLD MARKETSPrice of Apple M5 Ultra Studio 512gb on Release in 2026
- $12,000-$13,999+7.5pt32.2%
- $14,000-$15,999+4.1pt18.1%
- $10,000-$11,999+3.7pt16.9%
+3 résultats de plus
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many Traders will my 2026 Spotify Market get?
- 70+100%
- 80+100%
- 90+100%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 58,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 389,7 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)
- No94.4%
- Yes5.6%
- Volume total
- 80 k €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many regular-season wins will the New York Giants have in the 2026 NFL season under Jim Harbaugh?
- 5–7 wins40.2%
- 8-9 wins30.2%
- 10-11 wins13.2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 97,1 €
- Volume 24h
- Which job should I accept? [M$10,000 subsidy]
- When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?
- What is the base of the next nice number?
- What countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
- What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2030?
- Which country will the Chagos Islands belong to on 31 December 2049?
- What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?
- Will NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
- If AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
- Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Where will I live in October 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Menlo Park, CA à 28% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Where will I live in October 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Where will I live in October 2026? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Where will I live in October 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to the city where I most sleep the most nights during the month of October.