KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 82%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
36,4 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
15.0% / 18.0%
Écart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
30 avr. 24, 12:00 UTC1 janv. 30, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP?
Manifold MarketsWill China overtake the USA's economy by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsSOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
Manifold MarketsState of the economy at the end of 2026
KalshiWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExRègles
If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:IMF
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,4 k €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volume total
- 314,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5 k €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 82% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.