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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Économie
  3. US recession by end of 2026?
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

2.0% (24h)ÉconomieOne-Off7mo
PolymarketPolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui
Oui 20%+0.0%
Qualite du marche

80 / 100

Haute qualité
Volume 24h

3,2 k €

Liquidité

24,5 k €

Liquidité élevée
Achat / Vente

19.0% / 20.0%

Spread

5.3%

Spread modéré
Variation 7j

+1.0%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes

29 sept. 25, 22:2931 janv. 27, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes20%

LimitlessÉgalement disponible sur Limitless

US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

7mo
Oui
Oui
19.5%
Non
Non
80.5%
28 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total2,9 k €
Volume 24h0 €
LimitlessLIMITLESS

Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

Polymarket
  • The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Note that advance estimates will be considered.
  • For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".

Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.

Actifs Sensibles au Macro

BitcoinBTC$62,655.03+2.33%EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%SolanaSOL$65.14+1.56%

Marchés Associés

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

792,6 €
5.0%: 17%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

259,9 €
Oui: 27.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
June Unemployment Rate

June Unemployment Rate

134,5 €
4.2%: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?

US real GDP growth in 2030?

134,1 €
2.6% to 3.0%: 11%KalshiKALSHI
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

96,2 €
Oui: 8%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Actifs dans ces sujets

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.70%XRPXRP$1.12+0.21%BNBBNB$595.20+1.63%CardanoADA$0.1659+2.86%HyperliquidHYPE$54.86-0.88%LitecoinLTC$42.71+0.65%

Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

Polymarket
  • The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Note that advance estimates will be considered.
  • For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".