PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisProbabilité implicite actuelleOui 20%+0.0%
Qualite du marche
80 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
3,2 k €
Liquidité
24,5 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
5.3%
Spread modéréVariation 7j
+1.0%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
29 sept. 25, 22:2931 janv. 27, 0:00
Tendances
Résultat choisi
Yes20%
Également disponible sur Limitless
US recession by end of 2026?
7mo
19.5%
80.5%
28 • Faible qualitéSpread inconnuFaible liquiditéMarché peu profond
Volume total2,9 k €
Volume 24h0 €
LIMITLESSRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
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Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".