LimitlessVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYCDonnées vérifiées limitéesProbabilité implicite actuelleOui 10.9%
Qualite du marche
28 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidité
0 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
-
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
7 janv. 26, 16:441 févr. 27, 4:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Yes11%
Comparer les plateformes· No
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h
Également disponible sur Manifold Markets
US recession in 2026?
5mo
88.4%
11.6%
Prévision communautaire134 prévisionnistesType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Également disponible sur Polymarket
US recession by end of 2026?
6mo
88%
12%
52 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité moyenne
Volume total1,5 M €
Volume 24h467,7 €
POLYMARKETRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$0.006 juil.21j de données26 juil.
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
10,6 k €Above 3.4%: 31%
KALSHI
KALSHI
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
3,9 k €0-1%: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Recession this year?
3,2 k €Oui: 11%KALSHI
KALSHI
2026: Trump's dream year?
1,8 k €Oui: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
US economic state at the end of 2026?
1,7 k €Soft Landing: 59%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
395,6 €Oui: 16.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
- The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
- For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
- If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product