Probabilité implicite actuelle
Soft Landing 48.5%-8.0ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
46 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
527,4 €
Liquidité
3,9 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
11.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
5
Variation 7j
-11.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
24 avr. 26, 21:49 UTC31 janv. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US economic recession in 2026?
FutuurWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiWhen will the next big economic crash occur?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRègles
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “the named outcome (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — State of the economy at the end of 2026 · Soft landing 58%
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 79,7 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 18,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3 k €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US economic state at the end of 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote Soft Landing à 48% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand US economic state at the end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US economic state at the end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 janvier 2027.
- Comment US economic state at the end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- Où US economic state at the end of 2026? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Kalshi.