Probabilité implicite actuelle
Soft Landing 62%+3.5%En tête parmi 4 options
Qualite du marche
79 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
1,5 k €
Liquidité
13,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
61.0% / 62.0%
Spread
1.6%
Spread serréVariation 7j
+19.0%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
24 avr. 26, 21:4931 janv. 27, 0:00
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Soft Landing62%
Comparer les plateformes· Soft landing
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketCette pageMeilleur global | Élevée | 62% | 0pt | 1,5 k € | 13,3 k € | il y a 5 minutes | |
 Kalshi93% de correspondance · vérifié | Moyenne | 62% | 0pt | 925 € | 21 k € | il y a 25 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Kalshi
State of the economy at the end of 2026
2.3%5mo
+2.3%62%
-5.5%20%
12%
+1 résultats de plus
52 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité moyenneAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total45,3 k €
Volume 24h925 €
KALSHIRègles
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$1.7k2 juil.24j de données26 juil.
Marchés Associés
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
9,3 k €Above 3.4%: 29%KALSHI
KALSHI
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
438,4 €Above 2.1%: 98%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
132,6 €Oui: 21%KALSHI
KALSHI
Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?
19,3 €Oui: 76.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
3,9 k €0-1%: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
395,5 €Oui: 16.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
CPI Data Still Moves Bitcoin and Altcoins as Forex Brokers Spotlight Macro Cross-CurrentsBlockchain Reporter
Polymarket sees 84% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026 after risk-off swingBlockchain.News
Bitcoin slides below $65K as Iran conflict fuels $100 oil and bond-yield surgeCointelegraph
Peter Schiff warns $100 oil could unleash a July inflation shockCrypto News
Polymarket puts Sept Fed hike at 50.5% on $4M volume amid oil, yieldsBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds favor 0 Fed cuts in 2026 at 84.65% on $44.6M volumeBlockchain.NewsRègles
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release.
- The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
- This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
- If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
- This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
- This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.