Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète13 avr. 25, 18:20 UTC1 janv. 31, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia have gone through an economic depression by EOY 2045?
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketBy 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurConditional on a cyber incident causing $15B+ in US economic damage, what will be the primary target?
Manifold MarketsWill the economic gap between the USA and Western Europe be greater in 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria:
- The market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the specified period, the U.S. economy meets both of the following conditions:
- Duration and Depth of Economic Decline:
- The U.S. experiences a continuous period of economic downturn lasting at least 24 months, during which there is a cumulative decline in real GDP of 10% or more.
- Unemployment Rate:
- The national unemployment rate reaches 15% or higher for six consecutive months.
