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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsChina economic recession before US?
Manifold MarketsWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsRecession this year?
KalshiRègles
This event predicts whether the United States will experience an economic recession at any point during calendar year 2026.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be a formal recession determination issued by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
- If the NBER officially determines that the United States entered a recession that includes any period in 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Recessions are not defined solely by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but by a significant decline in economic activity across multiple indicators, as assessed by the NBER.
- If the NBER announces a recession but determines it began and ended entirely outside of 2026, this market will resolve to "No".