By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
One-OffIAMacro & Economy1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 64.6%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 16:26 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
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KalshiRègles
Related to ACX five year predictions.
- I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
- By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
- Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.
- Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI? sera-t-il résolu ?
- By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2028.
- Comment By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Related to ACX five year predictions.