KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 76%
Qualité du marché
84 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
9,5 k €
Liquidité
161,9 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
23.0% / 24.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
24 avr. 26, 19:15 UTC31 janv. 28, 13:25 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Recession this year?
KalshiUS recession by end of 2027?
PolymarketWhich countries will have a recession before 2027?
KalshiWill the US experience a recession during 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExRègles
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
- GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.
- The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,4 k €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 18,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3 k €
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Recession in 2027? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 76% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Recession in 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Recession in 2027? doit être résolu le 31 janvier 2028.
- Comment Recession in 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.