Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.7%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète30 mars 25, 18:54 UTC31 mars 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRecession in 2027?
KalshiWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastEx[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2026 and end of 2027.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 554,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8 k €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volume total
- 314,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 17,7 k €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 76 k €
- Volume 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US experience a recession during 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US experience a recession during 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US experience a recession during 2027? doit être résolu le 31 mars 2028.
- Comment Will the US experience a recession during 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2026 and end of 2027.