Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.8%
Prévisionnistes
54
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète30 mars 25, 18:53 UTC31 mars 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US experience a recession during 2027?
Manifold MarketsThe US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026.
Manifold MarketsRecession this year?
KalshiRecession in Australia in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the UK enter a technical recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.