Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 83.9%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète12 août 24, 12:18 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US experience a recession during 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Trump economic boom?
Kalshi[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
FutuurFed Decision in September?
PolymarketRègles
This question resolves as yes if, for any 12-month period before 2030, the change in the US CPI-U (as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) is negative, and the real GDP growth (as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis) is greater than 5%.
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 554,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8 k €
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 79,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,6 k €
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question resolves as yes if, for any 12-month period before 2030, the change in the US CPI-U (as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) is negative, and the real GDP growth (as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis) is greater than 5%.