Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 83.2%+4.0pt
Qualité du marché
86 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
31,2 k €
Liquidité
189,7 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
83.0% / 84.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
16 sept. 26, 18:24 UTC9 déc. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Fed rate hike?
KalshiWill the Fed lower the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExFed rate hike by...? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsAnother Fed Rate Hike in 2026?
Manifold MarketsFed rate hike in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market.
- Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
- This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
2 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence pondérée par la liquidité de CoinRithm pour Référence CoinRithm est de 84%. Les cotations s'écartent d'environ 1 point de pourcentage entre les plateformes extrêmes.
Référence CoinRithm 84% · 2 plateformes · 1 pt d’ecart entre venues
Marchés ouverts
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt49.5%
- No change-4.0pt48.5%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 5,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-1.3pt95%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.3pt4%
- Exactly 3 cuts+0.5pt1%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.6pt97.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.2pt2.1%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt0%
+10 résultats de plus
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt49.5%
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt46.7%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase-3.0pt65%
- No change+3.0pt31.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.2pt1.9%
+2 résultats de plus
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- H 25+13.0pt64.9%
- H 0-5.0pt28.9%
- H 26-1.0pt3.5%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- Number of rate hikes in 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Another Fed rate hike in 2026? ?
- Polymarket cote Yes à 83% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Another Fed rate hike in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026? doit être résolu le 9 décembre 2026.
- Comment Another Fed rate hike in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting.
- Où Another Fed rate hike in 2026? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Limitless.