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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Économie
  3. 2026: Trump's bad year?
2026: Trump's bad year?

2026: Trump's bad year?

1.0% (24h)ÉconomieOne-OffUS Politics1a
KalshiKalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui
Oui 14%-1.0%
Qualite du marche

28 / 100

Faible qualité
Volume 24h

8,7 €

Liquidité

642,4 €

Faible liquidité
Achat / Vente

13.0% / 17.0%

Spread

30.8%

Spread large
Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes

17 déc. 25, 15:0031 déc. 27, 15:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes14%

Règles

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
  • If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
  • Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
  • - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
  • For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).

Marchés Associés

Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

87 €
2028: 31%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
2026: Trump's dream year?

2026: Trump's dream year?

5,1 €
Oui: 9%KalshiKALSHI
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

2,5 €
Oui: 37%KalshiKALSHI
Will there be a Trump economic boom?

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

1,9 €
Oui: 51%KalshiKALSHI
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

0 €
Oui: 26%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

5,1 €
<-2.4%: 47%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,457.50+1.52%EthereumETH$1,647.96+1.11%SolanaSOL$64.94+0.67%DogecoinDOGE$0.0845+0.66%XRPXRP$1.11-0.53%BNBBNB$593.87+1.05%

Actualités Associées

Former Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto NewsTrump adviser Patrick Witt backs sweeping crypto tax billsCrypto NewsU.S. judge blocks Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee after state challengeCrypto NewsTrump walks out of interview after clash over election fraud claims Crypto NewsCongress nears final vote on $70 billion immigration funding packageCrypto NewsCongress wants to ban lawmakers from crypto prediction marketsCrypto News

Règles

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
  • If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
  • Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
  • - "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL - "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
  • For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).