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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Politique
  3. Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

PolitiqueOne-OffÉconomieUS PoliticsÉlection3mo
KalshiKalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de frais
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui
Oui 37%
Qualite du marche

49 / 100

Faible qualité
Volume 24h

2,5 €

Liquidité

3,6 €

Faible liquidité
Achat / Vente

36.0% / 37.0%

Spread

2.8%

Spread serré
Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 1 minute

9 juin 26, 20:301 oct. 26, 14:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes37%

Règles

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations

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Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,664.91+2.34%EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.60%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.74%XRPXRP$1.12+0.22%BNBBNB$595.47+1.68%

Actualités Associées

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Règles

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations