KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 98%
Qualité du marché
58 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,8 k €
Liquidité
227,6 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
- / 2.0%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
9 juin 26, 20:30 UTC1 oct. 26, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold Markets(5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiFrance’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRègles
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 98% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Manifold Markets, Polymarket.