Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
ÉconomieOne-OffPolitiquePolitique américaine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 70.8%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète13 mai 26, 08:16 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if any part of the United States federal government shuts down due to a lapse in appropriations at any point before 12:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- A "shutdown" is defined as a formal cessation of non-essential government operations caused by the failure of Congress to pass, and the President to sign, necessary appropriations legislation (continuing resolutions or full-year budgets).
- Official confirmation from sources such as the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations or major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, Bloomberg) confirming that federal agencies have initiated shutdown procedures will be used to resolve the market.
- If a shutdown occurs but is resolved within the same day without a significant disruption to non-essential services, the market will still resolve YES if an official lapse in appropriations was acknowledged by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).