Prévision communautaire actuelle
Feb 1 2026 100%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-40.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
24 janv. 26, 22:4629 nov. 26, 22:43
Tendances
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Règles
If the government is shut down for at least 1 minute on the listed date, Washington DC time, resolves yes for that date.
- Resolution will be based on whether a shutdown notice is visible on the OPM (Office of Personnel Management) site for at least part of a day.
- If a notice is visible on the OPM site for any portion of a given date, that date will resolve YES.
- Otherwise it will resolve NO.
- A shut down end will be determined by the date on which the funding package required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted.
- The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-3.0pt50%
- Marco Rubio17%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 600,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,9 M €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-1.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.7pt13%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 Md €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt53.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt42.7%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt1.9%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.5pt36.8%
- Édouard Philippe29.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+38 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom12.9%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 181 M €
- Volume 24h
- 390,2 k €
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Brazil Presidential election winner?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- North Carolina Senate winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour On which dates will the US government be shutdown? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Feb 1 2026 à 100% au 4 septembre 2026.
- Quand On which dates will the US government be shutdown? sera-t-il résolu ?
- On which dates will the US government be shutdown? doit être résolu le 29 novembre 2026.
- Comment On which dates will the US government be shutdown? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If the government is shut down for at least 1 minute on the listed date, Washington DC time, resolves yes for that date.