(5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027?
ÉconomieOne-OffUS PoliticsPolitique3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleShutdown 2 46.3%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard27 août 26, 20:07 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market uses a nonstandard mechanism that multiplies the odds of the underlying event by 5x.
- Please read the full description before trading.
- For fairness, and because of the nonstandard mechanism, I will not trade on any market in this Set.
- The reason I made this mechanism is because I noticed that due to the multiplier mechanism other multiplied odds markets tend to have their results N/A, which reverts all trades on the market, this means there is no reward for trading information even if the market does resolve correctly.
- This way all 5 of the markets should always have the same odds, and for one of them trades on it will not revert.
- There is no mechanism to force trading on all 5 markets, which means they can (but shouldn't) separate.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 554,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8 k €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volume total
- 314,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 17,7 k €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 76 k €
- Volume 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour (5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Shutdown 2 à 46% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand (5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- (5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment (5X multiplied) Will there be a 48 hour government shutdown before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market uses a nonstandard mechanism that multiplies the odds of the underlying event by 5x.