Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 47%+0.1%
Qualite du marche
40 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidité
3 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
40.0% / 54.0%
Spread
35.0%
Spread largeVariation 7j
-0.5%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
10 juin 26, 16:292 oct. 26, 3:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Yes47%
Comparer les plateformes· No
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMeilleur global92% de correspondance · auto | Élevée | 52% | +4pt | 592,2 € | 25,6 k € | il y a 13 minutes | Ouvrir → |
 PolymarketCette page | Faible | 53% | +5pt | 0 € | 3 k € | il y a 13 minutes |
Également disponible sur Kalshi
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
1.0%2mo
52%
-1.0%48%
91 • Haute qualitéSpread serréLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total45,9 k €
Volume 24h592,2 €
KALSHIRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$69 juil.10j de données24 juil.
Marchés Associés
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.