Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 99%-0.1pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
20,1 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
0.7% / 1.0%
Écart
0.3 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-1.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
10 juin 26, 16:29 UTC2 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 96,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 656,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 85,1 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 386 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,6 k €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,4 k €
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- GDP growth in 2026
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Government shutdown by October 1? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 99% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Government shutdown by October 1? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Government shutdown by October 1? doit être résolu le 2 octobre 2026.
- Comment Government shutdown by October 1? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Où Government shutdown by October 1? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Manifold Markets, Kalshi.