KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Soft landing 57.8%+0.1ptEn tête parmi 4 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
75 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
1 k €
Liquidité
42,4 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
25 févr. 26, 15:00 UTC13 janv. 27, 13:25 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q3 2026?
ForecastExChina overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
KalshiWill the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2035?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — US economic state at the end of 2026? · Soft Landing 48%
Marchés ouverts
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 79,7 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 18,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3 k €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour State of the economy at the end of 2026 ?
- Kalshi cote Soft landing à 58% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand State of the economy at the end of 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026 doit être résolu le 13 janvier 2027.
- Comment State of the economy at the end of 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où State of the economy at the end of 2026 est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.