Probabilité implicite actuelle
Soft landing 62%+2.3%En tête parmi 4 options
Qualite du marche
79 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
925,1 €
Liquidité
21 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
58.6% / 59.5%
Spread
1.5%
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 28 minutes
25 févr. 26, 15:0013 janv. 27, 13:25
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Soft landing62%
Comparer les plateformes· Soft landing
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiCette pageMeilleur global | Élevée | 62% | 0pt | 925,1 € | 21 k € | il y a 28 minutes | |
 PolymarketLa plus active93% de correspondance · vérifié | Moyenne | 59% | -3pt | 1,7 k € | 11,2 k € | il y a 8 minutes | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Polymarket
US economic state at the end of 2026?
1.0%6mo
+1.0%59%
+0.5%24%
-0.5%14%
+1 résultats de plus
52 • Qualité moyenneSpread largeLiquidité moyenneAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total48,7 k €
Volume 24h1,7 k €
POLYMARKETRègles
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$1.1k3 juil.23j de données26 juil.
Marchés Associés
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
10,6 k €Above 3.4%: 31%KALSHI
KALSHI
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
420,8 €Above 2.1%: 98%KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
132,7 €Oui: 21%KALSHI
KALSHI
Did US Real Median Household Income Increase in 2023?
19,3 €Oui: 76.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
3,9 k €0-1%: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US recession by end of 2026?
467,7 €Oui: 12%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
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Polymarket sees 84% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026 after risk-off swingBlockchain.News
Bitcoin slides below $65K as Iran conflict fuels $100 oil and bond-yield surgeCointelegraph
Peter Schiff warns $100 oil could unleash a July inflation shockCrypto News
Polymarket puts Sept Fed hike at 50.5% on $4M volume amid oil, yieldsBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds favor 0 Fed cuts in 2026 at 84.65% on $44.6M volumeBlockchain.NewsRègles
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is below 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.