PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
2.0–2.5% 69%+22.0ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Qualité du marché
69 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,7 k €
Liquidité
2,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
+30.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
12 nov. 25, 23:18 UTC29 janv. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
- Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026.
- Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt64%
- No change-10.0pt35%
- 50+ bps increase+0.4pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 96,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.7%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 656,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 85,1 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above -0.2%+3.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 386 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,6 k €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt92%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-10.0pt80%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-20.0pt60%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+1.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-6.0pt30%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,4 k €
KALSHIState of the economy at the end of 2026
- Soft landing-5.7pt50.5%
- Overheating+11.8pt44.8%
- Stagflation-2.6pt2.9%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Canada GDP: July 2026 (MoM)
- US government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2034?
- China unemployment rate in August
- Recession this year?
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour GDP growth in 2026 ?
- Polymarket cote 2.0–2.5% à 69% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand GDP growth in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- GDP growth in 2026 doit être résolu le 29 janvier 2027.
- Comment GDP growth in 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.