KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Above 0.0% 94%En tête parmi 9 options
Qualité du marché
31 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
3 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
10.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
28 juil. 26, 17:00 UTC28 janv. 27, 13:29 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Règles
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data.
- The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q4 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release.
- Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 612,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US real GDP growth in Q4 2026? ?
- Kalshi cote Above 0.0% à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US real GDP growth in Q4 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US real GDP growth in Q4 2026? doit être résolu le 28 janvier 2027.
- Comment US real GDP growth in Q4 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.