KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Japan 6%-0.1ptEn tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
47 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
35,3 €
Liquidité
30,4 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
6.2 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
23 avr. 24, 12:00 UTC31 déc. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
If the named outcome has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:IMF
- The exact dataset for the named outcome is GDP, Real, Seasonally Adjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
- If China has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The exact dataset for China is GDP, Nominal, Unadjusted, Domestic Currency from the IMF.
- If Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The exact dataset for Japan is GDP, real, seasonally adjusted, domestic currency from the IMF.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,4 k €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volume total
- 314,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5 k €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which countries will have a recession before 2027? ?
- Kalshi cote Japan à 6% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which countries will have a recession before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which countries will have a recession before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Which countries will have a recession before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the named outcome has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.