Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.7%
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18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard9 nov. 23, 00:21 UTC2 janv. 30, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
Manifold MarketsEurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
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PolymarketChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
PolymarketAre Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in 2029?
KalshiRègles
Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/2621/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.
- This question asks: *In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?*
- For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 90,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 358,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 35,6 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 554,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 33,8 k €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Volume total
- 314,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 17,7 k €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 76 k €
- Volume 24h
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment [Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?