Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93.2%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète29 avr. 26, 22:33 UTC31 déc. 50, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
KalshiSOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
Manifold MarketsWhich party's candidate will become US President after the election in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any current or former US President or member of the Cabinet identify as a furry by 2039?
Manifold MarketsWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWill any portion of Alberta become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRègles
Potential Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
- I suppose they don't have to be strictly a "former" pornstar.
- They could still be active, but they had to have also done the work prior to becoming President.
- Though I admit that'd be quite odd and much less expected than someone who had retired from that work.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 323,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 523 k €
- Volume 24h
- 22 k €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Volume total
- 611,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 10,5 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+1.0pt6%
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- 2026: Trump's dream year?
- Unemployment in September
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2050.
- Comment Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Potential Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)