Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNavier-Stokes 98.1%+47.2ptEn tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
63
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+51.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
18 avr. 24, 20:08 UTC1 janv. 41, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
Manifold MarketsWill *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
Manifold MarketsWill all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
Other = a prize yet to be added to the Millenium prize list
- https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Navier-Stokes à 98% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2041.
- Comment Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Other = a prize yet to be added to the Millenium prize list