PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 97%-0.1pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,4 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
1.9% / 3.4%
Écart
1.5 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-10.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
3 avr. 26, 22:44 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhat will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
- For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Marchés ouverts
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 57,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 86,7 k €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 153,9 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
- No23%
- Volume total
- 286,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,5 k €
- When will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.