Ce marché s'est résolu: No (94.6%)
Résolu: 7 oct. 2026, 10:23
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 7 oct. 2026, 21:22 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Google AI system achieve an "Uplift level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if the official prize motivation published on NobelPrize.org for the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine (announced 5 October), Physics (6 October), or Chemistry (7 October) contains any of these phrases, case-insensitive:
- "artificial intelligence"
- "machine learning"
- "neural network" (or "neural networks")
- "deep learning"
- Otherwise resolves NO.
