Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 88.6%
Prévisionnistes
66
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète5 déc. 22, 06:41 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsI am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI outperform the best human expert on machine learning R&D?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill we get ASI before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Let's operationalize it this way:
- "If Eliezer either expresses that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, or Eliezer strongly implies that he feels this way (eg. by indicating that it is more useful than an additional MIRI-level researcher), then we consider this market resolved to YES."
