I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
IAOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 83.6%
Prévisionnistes
77
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète21 déc. 22, 20:35 UTC1 janv. 31, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Google AI system achieve an "Autonomy level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurTop AI model in September?
KalshiRègles
Background on me: I rate myself at somewhere between 75th and 95th percentile skill in machine learning engineering [amongst employed professionals of that job title].
- I rate myself at >95th percentile knowledge/skill in the overlap space of machine learning and neuroscience.
- Disclaimer: I may be wrong about these estimates, this is just information for you to use about my opinion of myself.
- Resolution criteria: I must either have successfully done this, or it must be obvious that someone of my equivalent skill level could accomplish this.
- Coding a seed AI that recursively self-improves to AGI counts, if the improvement is accomplished within budget and timeframe.
- Criteria for AGI pretty vauge, but I will try to resolve honestly in way which I believe would be convincing to most neutral parties as of creation of this question.