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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète1 juin 23, 06:49 UTC1 janv. 27, 08:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
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PolymarketRègles
As of 2023, China's artificial intelligence (AI) sector has achieved outsized success, with Chinese companies dominating the top five spots in a U.S. government ranking of the most accurate facial recognition technology producers.
- This success is attributed to the alignment of interests between AI technology and autocratic rulers, with AI being a fundamentally predictive technology and autocratic regimes known for collecting vast amounts of data1.
- The growth in FLOPs used for ML training over time has been substantial, with increasing access to cloud computing resources and declining costs contributing to this trend.
- Before January 1, 2027, will any media report a machine learning training run in China exceeding 10^26 FLOP?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2027, there is credible media reporting of a machine learning training run in China that exceeds 10^26 FLOP.